The flourishing of container cargo trade has led to a sudden increase in pressure on ports

According to foreign reports on Thursday, June 28th, global trade and container shipping will continue to rise in the next 10 years. However, for ports, they will face greater pressure as a result.

The UK shipping analysis firm MDSTransmodal has conducted an in-depth analysis of the upcoming throughput crisis faced by major ports around the world and the potential impact on container shipping in its newly released Container Trade Supply and Demand Report.

According to their estimation, the throughput capacity gap of major ports in the world will reach 85.2 million TEUs by 2011, of which 68% will come from the Far East, and China will account for two-thirds of the gap in the Far East region. In addition, ports in Northwest Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the South Asian subcontinent will also face the threat of insufficient throughput capacity in the next 10 years. Although MDSTransmodal stated that the results of the report did not include new ports that are currently being developed or planned, we still feel that improving port throughput capacity is urgent. Mr. Mike Garratt, General Manager of MDSTransmodal, said, "The sustained growth of global container trade has created a crisis in port throughput capacity, which has become a major challenge to the port industry. Container trade has developed rapidly in recent decades, as evidenced by the capacity of container fleets. By 2009, the global container fleet capacity will be five times that of 1990, with an average annual growth rate of 8.7%. The growth rate in the next three years will be higher than this average figure, and the transportation capacity will expand to 15.3 million TEUs.

From the expansion of the container fleet, we can see that the quantity of sea freight container cargo has rapidly expanded in the past 10 years. In 1996, the amount of sea freight container goods in global trade was about 332 million tons, and last year this number was expected to be 765 million tons, with an average annual increase of nearly 8.8%. MDSTransmodal expects a further 42% increase in sea freight container cargo by 2011, with a cargo volume exceeding 1 billion tons (approximately 151 million TEUs), and an average annual growth rate of around 7.6% over the next five years. If calculated by standard containers (TEUs), last year's sea freight container cargo was 106 million TEUs, an increase of 12% compared to 2005. This year's increase is expected to be slightly less than 9%, with a total of approximately 116 million TEUs.

The deeper reason behind the expansion of container fleets and trade growth is the rapid development of the global economy. Last year, the world's cargo trade volume reached 9.7 billion tons, compared to only 6 billion tons in 1996. Energy products account for half of the market (ore accounts for 5%, grains and animal feed account for 3%), while sea freight container cargo accounts for 8%. Compared to 5.5% in 1996, the increase in the proportion of sea freight container cargo can be attributed to the improvement of containerization of agricultural and mineral products, as well as the emergence of a large number of new types of goods such as renewable commodities. From 1996 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of world container cargo was 10%, while the average annual growth rate of world goods trade was 5%.

In addition, the report also shows that due to the rapid growth of lightweight goods such as toys, furniture, and electronic products, the growth rate of sea freight container cargo measured in TEUs is faster than measured in tons. However, MDSTransmodal indicates that in the next three years, as the amount of containerized heavy goods such as metal waste increases, the gap between the two measurement methods will decrease, especially on Pacific to Atlantic shipping routes. In the next five years, the absolute growth of sea freight container cargo is expected to significantly increase, reaching 45 million TEUs (approximately 320 million tons). This number exceeds the growth of 35 million TEUs (approximately 230 million tons) from 2000 to the present.

The MDSTransmodal report also highlighted the crisis of container port throughput capacity. The average annual increase in global container port transportation volume over the past 10 years has been 7.7%. Ports with frequent liner calls will soon feel the pressure brought by increasing demand. The report selected 81 major ports worldwide as samples, with a total throughput of 292 million TEUs in 2005, accounting for 72% of the total throughput that year. There are over 800 container ports worldwide, with a total of approximately 2400 container berths and 605 kilometers of coastline. The report states: "In theory, the port throughput capacity of many countries is sufficient to meet demand. However, in the near and future, demand growth will increasingly concentrate on a few major ports, so most of them will face the threat of insufficient throughput capacity. The throughput capacity of major ports will increase to around 435 million TEUs, but this is not enough to fully meet demand, and it is expected that there will still be a gap of about 85.2 million TEUs. ”However, the report states that the supply-demand balance has been maintained well over the past decade.

Additionally, it is worth noting that the "waterfall effect" of ship enlargement accelerates the speed at which ships are "phased out" to secondary routes, while high fuel prices force ships to slow down. Therefore, the number of new ships will continue to rise, and how to efficiently allocate these ships will be a severe test.

In summary, although the report did not include the new ports currently under development or planned for development, in order to adapt to the booming global trade, the port throughput capacity must be improved as soon as possible.